Release of Aung San Suu Kyi isn't Burma's Mandela moment
By Mathias Nkayaga
People love historical analogies, so it’s easy to think of Aung San Suu Kyi’s release from house arrest on November 13 as Burma’s “Mandela moment”.
When Nelson Mandela was freed from 27 years of imprisonment in 1990, it marked the start of a process that saw the negotiated end of the apartheid regime and genuinely free elections in only four years. Maybe that sort of thing will now happen in Burma too.
That would be nice, but it wouldbe unwise to bet the farm on it. “The Lady”, as everybody in Burma calls her, has the same combination of saintly forbearance and tough political realism that enabled Nelson Mandela to lead the transition to democracy so successfully in South Africa, but her situation is very different.
Mandela emerged from prison to assume the leadership of a powerful, disciplined mass movement, whereas Suu Kyi must start by picking up the pieces of a party that has split and lost focus during her seven years of house arrest. Its leaders are almost all elderly men, and there is no younger generation of leaders in sight.
South Africa was utterly isolated politically, and its economy was crumbling under the impact of sanctions. The Burmese regime has diplomatic relations with its trading partners in Southeast Asia and a very powerful supporter in China. Burmese living standards are dramatically lower than those in neighbouring countries due to 40 years of corrupt and incompetent military rule, but the economy is growing.
And the most important difference: when South Africa’s President F.W. de Klerk freed Mandela in 1990, he already knew that the apartheid regime was doomed. He wanted to negotiate a non-violent transition to a democratic system that would preserve a place for South Africa’s white minority, and Mandela was the best negotiating partner he could hope for.
The regime that has just released Aung San Suu Kyi, by contrast, does not think it has lost, and a transition to a genuinely democratic system is the last thing on its mind. It has just finished an elaborate charade of elections (nine-tenths of the candidates were government-backed) under a new constitution (one-quarter of the parliamentary seats are reserved for the armed forces). It already has all the democracy it wants.
Why did Burma’s military rulers even bother to construct a pseudo-democratic facade like this? After all, their power really rests on their willingness, demonstrated again only three years ago, to kill unarmed civilian protesters in the streets. They don’t care about being loved, so long as they are feared.
But they are as concerned about preserving the country’s independence as any other Burmese, and that makes it desirable to end Western sanctions against the regime. They are hugely dependent on China as an investor and a market for their raw materials, and that is not a comfortable position for any Burmese to be in.
“When China spits, Burma swims,” says the old proverb. If Aung Sang Suu Kyi can persuade the Western powers to end sanctions against Burma—and she has already hinted that she will help—then the regime can use better relations with the West to counterbalance China’s overweening influence in the country.
Obviously, the regime is betting that it can use “The Lady” in ending sanctions without risking its own hold on power, and perhaps it is right. She faces a hard task in rebuilding her party, which split over the question of whether to participate in the recent bogus election. Even if she succeeds, the generals can always arrest her again and lock her away for as many years as they like. Who would stop them? But they could still lose their bet.
The citation for Aung San Suu Kyi’s Nobel Prize in 1991 called her a shining example of “the power of the powerless”, and that power is real. It could be seen in the adoring crowds who came out to see her when she was freed: after seven years of invisibility, her appeal to two generations of Burmese who have lived under the boots of the military regime all their lives is undimmed.
Like Nelson Mandela in apartheid South Africa, or Vaclav Havel in Communist Czechoslovakia, or Mohandas Gandhi in colonial India, she is a realist about power and fear. “People have been saying I know nothing of Burmese politics,” she said when she was first drawn into politics during the non-violent protest movement of 1988. “The trouble is I know too much.” And the 1988 protests were duly drowned in blood.
But she also knows that Mandela and Havel and Gandhi eventually won.
They all had to accept that the guilty would go unpunished, for otherwise the outgoing regime would fight until the very last ditch. They also understood that negotiating with the enemy is necessary, and so does she.
As she said in 1997: “I would like to set strongly the precedent that you bring about political change through political settlement and not through violence.”
Despite all that, those other heroes of non-violence got what they were really struggling for in the end: a free and democratic country. And Aung San Suu Kyi could ultimately achieve that too, even though it is hard to see from here the precise route that might lead her to that goal.
Daladalas plan strike in a week
By Mathias Nkayaga
Dar es Salaam. Bus owners have issued a seven-day ultimatum to the government to address their grievances, otherwise they will paralyze the transport sector by an indefinite strike.
Tanzania Bus Owners Association (Taboa) members meeting in Dar es Salaam yesterday declared that they would halt services within a week unless the government addressed their key grievances.
“We also want the government to remove all touts from bus stations, and stop Majembe Auction Mart from mistreating us,” they said.
“We are the ones who know our operational costs….the costs are what guide us in fixing bus fares….it is therefore unfortunate that everyone should be involved in the setting fares as if they know our operational expenses,” said Mr Abdullah.
According to Taboa, transport fares were reviewed upwards for the last time in 2007. An attempt to increase them last year was thwarted, and within a month the fares were back to 2007 rates.
Taboa says the price of petrol as well as spare parts have skyrocketed in line with the depreciation of the currency and they need to adjust the fare.
The transporters also reiterated their long-standing grievances about lack of tax incentives for the sector
CCM poll loser calls for annulment of Ubungo results, Dar es Salaam
By Mathias Nkayaga
A Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) candidate for Ubungo Constituency in the October General Election has petitioned the High Court to nullify election results there, alleging massive irregularities and intimidation during the electoral process.
Ms Hawa Ng’humbi who lost to Mr John Mnyika of Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) argues that her main contender committed illegal practices prior and on election day, including the use of a church platform to seduce followers to vote for him and his party’s presidential candidate Dr Wilibrod Slaa.
The CCM candidate, who got 50,544 against 66,742 of Mr Mnyika, has sought a declaration that the nomination of the latter as the successful candidate was invalid.
Ms Ng’humbi who claims to have an overwhelming chance of succeeding is accusing Mr Mnyika of making false allegations during campaign rallies, to the effect that she was involved in the illegal and fraudulent sale of a house previously belonging to CCM’s Women Wing (UWT).
In the petition she filed yesterday, the former candidate alleged that unauthorized laptop computers bought by Mr Mnyika were used in the vote tallying exercise, instead of those from the National Electoral Commission (NEC).
“The use of strange computers was allowed without first being subjected to inspection to verity whether there was cooked data therein,” Ms Ng’humbi claims.
Farmer injured after detonating grenade
By Mathias Nkayaga
A resident of Nyakasimbi ward, Bugene division in Karagwe district, Kagera region has been injured after detonating an ordinance while farming.
The Kagera Regional Commander (RPC) Mr Vitus Mlorele said the incident took place on November 30 around 10:00 am after
Bahati Francis,48 set fire to burn weeds she had collected at the farm.
The fire triggered the ordinance which injured her in the ensuing explosion, the police chief said, adding that they had started to investigate the origin of the device.
The victim was rushed to hospital for treatment, he said.
Thunder hits, kills student
By Mathias Nkayaga
A student at Katebenga Primary School in Nyakato ward, Bukoba Rural district has died after being stuck by thunder early during the week.
28 other students were injured while taking shelter out of their classes after a thunder hit the area when it rained on Wednesday.
Kagera Regional Police Commander, Mr Vitus Mlorele identified the dead as grade four boy Edson Geofrey, 12.
He said the incident took place at 7:25 pm while students from various neighbouring schools had congregated at Katebenga for a sporting event.
The students were from Kashozi, Ibosa, Nyakato, Kiilima, Kishangati and Katebanga, which hosted the games.
The injured were taken to Kagera regional hospital for treatment, he said, adding that one of them, Adorophina John,14 of grade six at Kashozi primary school was seriously injured.
The other 27 injured were progressing well, he said.
Neglect English at your own peril, don warns
By Mathias Nkayaga
A senior academician at the Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) has warned that Tanzanian graduates will not be able to succeed in the East African labour market without English competency.
The remark was made by the former SUA deputy vice-chancellor Professor Appolinaria Pereka, who noted that competency in English language remained a big challenge to Tanzanians seeking opportunities in the regional labor market.
He said in the era of globalization, sound communication skills in the foreign language is necessary for graduates seeking brighter prospects.
“The big problem we have as Tanzanians is the inability to effectively communicate in English…we should know that the interview panel expects you (graduate job-seekers) to to speak and write efficiently in English, and not only Kiswahili,”he insisted.
He was speaking at an event in which best students of the Moshi-based university college of cooperatives (MUCCoBS) were awarded testimonials and cash prizes.
“People of different nationalities now come to Tanzania to look for jobs. They come from Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and many other countries…therefore the competition in the labour market is going to be stiffer in future. I would advise those with English problems amongst you to start going for tuition,” he said.
Prof Pereka commended MUCCoBS for the initiative of awarding top performers, and recommended that higher leaning institutions should do the same to encourage academic excellence.
He noted that in South Africa, for example, top performing students are not only given prizes but also 100 per cent scholarships to continue with further education.
The award-giving ceremony at MUCCoBS was part of its fifth graduation ceremony activities. The event was attended by the college principle, Prof Faustine Bee.
Five students emerged as the best performers. They were Fratern Lasway who got a prize of Sh190, 000, Doreen Morice (Sh170, 000), Elizabeth John (Sh150, 000), Leonia Rugalabamu (Sh150, 000) and Monica Ngoti (Sh140, 000).
